财政大臣承诺提供'公平与机遇'，但在首相暗示可能违背承诺后，未重申竞选宣言中的税收政策。
雷切尔·里夫斯将在一场重要演讲中为增税预算奠定基础，此举可能打破工党在所得税方面的竞选承诺。她将在演讲中坦率直面未来的艰难抉择。
财政大臣将于周二市场开盘时发表讲话。届时她将承诺在本月预算中做出公平抉择，但不会重申竞选宣言中关于不提高所得税、增值税或国民保险税的承诺。
基尔·斯塔默周一晚间向议员们表示，这将是一份“基于工党价值观制定的工党预算”，并承诺该预算将保护英国国民医疗服务体系（NHS）、减少债务并缓解生活成本压力。
首相向议员们暗示了政府将如何解释其可能违背竞选宣言的行为——他表示，“保守党的紧缩政策、糟糕的脱欧协议以及疫情对英国生产力的长期影响，其严重程度甚至超出了我们此前的担忧，这一点正变得越来越清晰”。
斯塔默向面色凝重的议员们表示，尽管许多人对可能违背竞选宣言持怀疑态度，但政府将做出"艰难而公平的决定"。他称保守党与改革党的选择将"使我们重新回到紧缩政策"。
与会议员们不断质询斯塔默（Starmer）预算案是否会取消两孩福利上限，有人称这是对首相发起的“协同”施压行动。
尽管无人明确对违背竞选纲领提出质疑，但至少有一名议员强调了公众必须'了解我们的立场'。然而，由于未出现任何针对竞选纲领的直接对抗，基尔·斯塔默和雷切尔·里夫斯或许能稍感安心——工党议会内部并未出现强烈反对声浪。
据了解，高级战略家们正全力投入在预算公布前为重大变革造势，他们认为去年财政声明取得成功的关键在于：市场对投资规则调整和雇主国民保险费用上调等举措并不感到意外——尽管这些政策存在争议，但已提前进行了充分铺垫。
尽管预算出台前的财政形势严峻，但一些业内人士表示，经济前景比预期更为乐观。
尽管他们承认预算责任办公室对生产率的下调令人头疼，但他们指出，债务融资成本的下降以及更多劳动力进入就业市场可能有助于限制损失。此外，利率下调与零售额超预期增长也将起到积极作用。
财政大臣的一位盟友表示："尽管形势严峻，但我们将坦诚地向民众说明这些抉择。同时，经济方面也存在一些乐观因素。"
但这份预算案仍意味着艰难的抉择——财政大臣瑞斯既要力争将财政空间可能扩大一倍，还需筹措数十亿资金以取消或放宽两孩福利上限，同时保障英国国民医疗服务体系（NHS）的资本支出。
预算案将重点缓解民众生活成本压力，据悉财政大臣里夫斯正考虑削减家庭能源账单的增值税及部分环保税。
一家颇具影响力的智库敦促财政大臣将所得税提高2个百分点，同时将国民保险削减同等幅度，此举预计可增加60亿英镑收入，其中大部分增收将来自不缴纳国民保险的人群（如养老金领取者和房东）所承担的额外负担。
此举或使财政大臣得以主张，其预算案将保障工薪阶层（即按月领取薪资者）的收入。
决议基金会指出，高于预期的薪资增长几乎可以抵消生产率下调带来的全部财政损失，同时还能减少借贷——预计缺口仅为540亿英镑，远低于此前预期。
该机构前首席执行官托斯滕·贝尔（Torsten Bell）现为政府部长，是唐宁街10号和11号高级部长及顾问预算委员会的核心成员。
该智库还建议进一步增税，具体措施包括延长所得税起征点冻结期、提高股息税以及填补资本利得税漏洞，预计总共可筹集260亿英镑。
据悉，里夫斯正考虑对高收入者加税，并谈及收入最高的人群应承担更多税负。有报道称，此举可能针对年收入超过46,000英镑的人群。
然而，消息人士向《卫报》透露，他们认为财政大臣确信仅提高高收入税起征点远不足以筹集所需资金。
在唐宁街的演讲中，里夫斯将承诺回应外界对其预算的猜测，但预计不会宣布任何具体政策。
在上周的议会质询中，斯塔默并未重申其竞选纲领中关于税收的承诺，仅表示将在预算案期间"公布我们的计划"。
里夫斯明确表示，她计划为自己争取更多回旋余地，并终结预算黑洞的恶性循环。她将承诺‘做出必要选择，为我们的经济奠定坚实基础——不仅为了今年，更为了未来数年’。
这份预算将秉承本届政府的核心价值观——公平与机遇，并紧紧围绕英国民众的优先事项展开：守护国民医疗服务体系（NHS）、削减国家债务以及改善生活成本问题。
财政大臣将表示，外界对于他将作出的决策已有诸多猜测——这些重要决策将在未来多年内塑造我们的经济格局。
但重要的是，民众需要理解我们当前面临的处境、指导我做出这些选择的原则——以及为何我相信这些选择对国家而言是正确的。
唐宁街10号内部高层认为，此次预算案的最大风险在于工党议员对违背竞选纲领行为的反应——鉴于此前议员们曾在冬季燃料补贴和福利削减政策上迫使政府作出让步。
一位部长表示："如果我们选择这条道路，就必须明确它将把我们引向何方；我们必须制定一项计划，确保普通民众因此感到生活改善，能够提供切实更优质的公共服务或缓解生活成本压力。"
另一位政府消息人士表示：“我担心围绕此事的宣传会变成我们需要为了经济稳定或经济形势而采取这一行动。那将彻底毁了我们。我们需要向民众表明，由于他们的税收增加，我们正在为他们带来直接的利益。”
另一位部长表示："当前关于债券市场和偿还债务的讨论已经过多。我们应当低调处理这些事务，而更应高调宣传选民关心的资金用途。"
斯塔默的一位亲密盟友、某位内阁大臣表示，首相已明确向团队表明，他认为实际上大选竞选活动已经展开，他们必须开始在生活成本、打击非法移民和改善公共服务等方面向公众提出更具体的承诺并取得进展。
Chancellor to promise fairness and opportunity but will not repeat manifesto pledge on tax, after PMs hint at breach
Rachel Reeves will lay the groundwork for a tax-raising budget that could break Labours election promise on income tax, in a major speech in which she will be candid about the tough choices ahead.
The chancellor will give the speech as the markets open on Tuesday, when she will promise to make fair choices at this months budget but decline to repeat her manifesto pledge of no rise in income tax, VAT or national insurance.
Keir Starmer told MPs on Monday night it would be a Labour budget built on Labour values and promised it would protect the NHS, reduce debt and ease the cost of living.
The prime minister gave MPs a hint at how the government would frame its potential manifesto breach C saying it was becoming clearer that the long-term impact of Tory austerity, their botched Brexit deal and the pandemic on Britains productivity is worse than even we feared.
Starmer told the grim-faced crowd of MPs, many sceptical of the potential manifesto breach, that there would be tough but fair decisions C saying the choice of the Conservatives and Reform would be to return us to austerity.
MPs in the meeting repeatedly grilled Starmer on whether the budget would lift the two child benefit cap, in what one described as coordinated pressure on the prime minister.
While nobody raised concerns over a manifesto breach explicitly, at least one MP spoke about the necessity that the public know what we stand for. However, the absence of any direct confrontation over the manifesto may give Starmer and Reeves some confidence that they are not facing a major backlash from within the parliamentary Labour party.
Senior strategists are understood to be heavily invested in pitch-rolling the major changes before the budget, believing the key success of last years statement was that markets were not surprised by the changes to investment rules or the national insurance rise for employers, which although controversial were well trailed.
Though the fiscal landscape ahead of the budget is hard, the economic picture is said by some insiders to be less gloomy than predicted.
While they accept the Office for Budget Responsibilitys productivity downgrade has created a headache, they point out that a fall in debt financing costs and more people coming into the jobs market may help limit the damage. Interest rate cuts and stronger-than-expected retail sales could also help.
Its a tough backdrop but were going to be honest with people about the choices, one ally of the chancellor said. And there are some reasons for economic optimism.
But the budget will still mean hard decisions, as Reeves seeks to potentially double her fiscal headroom, as well as find billions to scrap or ease the two-child benefits limit and protect capital spending in the NHS.
There will be a focus on easing the cost of living in the budget, with Reeves understood to be considering cutting VAT on domestic energy bills and some green levies.
The chancellor has been urged by an influential thinktank to raise income tax by 2p but to cut national insurance by the same amount, raising 056bn mostly from the added burden on those who do not pay NI C such as pensioners and landlords.
The move may allow the chancellor to argue that her budget will protect the incomes of working people C those paid with a monthly payslip.
The Resolution Foundation said that higher-than-expected pay could offset almost all the fiscal damage from the productivity downgrade and also reduce borrowing C predicting the gap would be 054bn, far smaller than expected.
Its former chief executive Torsten Bell, now a government minister, is a key figure who sits on the budget board of senior ministers and advisers in No 10 and No 11.
The thinktank also suggests further tax rises, including extending the freeze on income tax threshold, raising dividend tax and closing capital gains tax loopholes to raise a total of 0526bn.
Reeves is also said to be considering an increased tax on higher earners C and has spoken about how those with the broadest shoulders should bear the burden . Reports have suggested that could target people with incomes over 0546,000.
However, sources have told the Guardian that they believe the chancellor is convinced that raising the higher income tax threshold alone would not raise nearly enough.
At a speech in Downing Street, Reeves will promise to address the speculation about her budget, though she is not expected to make any specific policy announcements.
At last weeks prime ministers questions, Starmer did not repeat his manifesto promises on tax, saying only that he would lay out our plans during the budget.
In a clear signal that Reeves intends to give herself more headroom and end the cycle of budget black holes, she will promise to make the choices necessary to deliver strong foundations for our economy C for this year, and years to come.
It will be a budget led by this governments values, of fairness and opportunity and focused squarely on the priorities of the British people C protecting our NHS, reducing our national debt and improving the cost of living.
The chancellor will say that there has been a lot of speculation about the choices I will make these are important choices that will shape our economy for years to come.
But it is important that people understand the circumstances we are facing, the principles guiding my choices C and why I believe they will be the right choices for the country.
Inside No 10, senior figures believe the biggest risk at the budget is the reaction of Labour MPs to a manifesto breach, given how MPs forced U-turns on winter fuel payments and welfare cuts .
If we are going down this road we need to be absolutely clear where it leads us; we must have a plan that means ordinary people feel better off as a result, that we can deliver tangibly better public services or ease the cost of living, one minister said.
Another government source said: I fear that the communication around this will be that we need to take this action for economic stability or because of the economic situation. That will completely kill us. We need to show people we are delivering direct benefit to them as a result of their taxes going up.
Another minister said: Already we are hearing too much about bond markets and paying the debt down. We should care about those things quietly, and speak more loudly about what this money is paying for that our voters care about.
One minister, a close ally of Starmer, said the prime minister had been clear with his team that he believed they were already in effect in a general election campaign, and they had to start making far more tangible offers and progress to the public on cost of living, tackling illegal migration and improving public services.
